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The World Markets Research Centre (WMRC) forecast this week that there will be 84.1 million 3G subscribers in Western Europe by the end of 2007. These users, according to WMRC, will generate revenues of USD36.3 billion from traditional voice services, SMS and multimedia messaging, as well as from infotainment and Internet access.
This figure is 15 percent lower than current market figures of USD42.3 billion published by UMTS Forum and Telecompetition in August 2001, which means that 3G will account for only one-third of total western European mobile revenues by 2007. WMRC believes that only 27 percent of all mobile subscribers will have a 3G phone by 2007, one-third less than current published figures of around 40 percent.
WMRC blames the slow uptake rate on the lack of consumer interest in new infotainment services and Internet access that be offered by 3G. In fact, the research group's analysis predicts that traditional voice calls and SMS messaging will continue to dominate mobile revenues. Meanwhile, infotainment and Internet access take-up will be considerably lower than expected, each accounting for less than 10 percent of 3G network services sales.
These figures compare with UMTS' forecast that 31 percent and 15 percent of 3G revenues will be derived from infotainment and mobile Internet access respectively by the end of 2007.
WMRC announced the report on its World Markets 3G Forecasting and Analysis service Web site, which provides a daily analysis of the current and future 3G markets in Western Europe and Japan.
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