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Research firm predicts sluggish 3G sales
Tuesday, May 28 2002
by Ciaran Buckley


Third Generation (3G) mobile telecoms growth over the next five years will be
significantly slower than previously forecast, according to a new report. 









The World Markets Research Centre (WMRC) forecast this week that there will be
84.1 million 3G subscribers in Western Europe by the end of 2007. These users,
according to WMRC, will generate revenues of USD36.3 billion from traditional
voice services, SMS and multimedia messaging, as well as from infotainment and
Internet access. 





This figure is 15 percent lower than current market figures of USD42.3 billion
published by UMTS Forum and Telecompetition in August 2001, which means that 3G
will account for only one-third of total western European mobile revenues by
2007. WMRC believes that only 27 percent of all mobile subscribers will have a 3G
phone by 2007, one-third less than current published figures of around 40
percent.





WMRC blames the slow uptake rate on the lack of consumer interest in new
infotainment services and Internet access that be offered by 3G. In fact, the
research group's analysis predicts that traditional voice calls and SMS messaging
will continue to dominate mobile revenues. Meanwhile, infotainment and Internet
access take-up will be considerably lower than expected, each accounting for less
than 10 percent of 3G network services sales. 



These figures compare with UMTS' forecast that 31 percent and 15 percent of 3G
revenues will be derived from infotainment and mobile Internet access
respectively by the end of 2007.



WMRC announced the report on its World Markets 3G Forecasting and Analysis
service Web site, which provides a daily
analysis of the current and future 3G markets in Western Europe and Japan.