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::WIRELESS

Vodafone growth slower than expected
Tuesday, January 29 2002
by Andrew McLindon

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Vodafone has added 4.2 million new customers in the last three months, but in some markets it did not meet growth expectations.

Of the 4.2 million customers, 3.1 million were added through organic growth with just over one million coming from acquisitions, primarily its purchase of J-Phone in Japan. The additions mean that Vodafone had 99.9 million proportionate customers and over 222 million venture customers by the end of 2001.

However, net additions during the period in its German market were just 25,000, which was far less than market expectations of at least 200,000. In the UK, it added 365,000 customers, but again this was below the forecasted 400,000. In Ireland, Eircell Vodafone added 90,000 customers during the three months to reach a customer base of 1.7 million. Nearly three-quarters of that figure, 72 percent, is made up of pre-paid customers.

The company also said that registered blended average revenue per user (ARPU) remained stable in its major markets during the period thanks mainly to the seasonal effect being less than expected. Vodafone did not give ARPU for Eircell Vodafone, but ARPU in the UK for the 12-month period came to EUR448.5, while in Sweden the figure was EUR575.6. Vodafone's German average revenue per user was EUR303.

Data revenue, another key performance indicator watched by investors and analysts, rose to over 12 percent of service revenues for the group's controlled operations in December and over 10 percent in the year to date.

As mobile operators continue to invest heavily in the rollout of their GPRS and 3G networks, which are expected to offer increased revenues for the companies, analysts and investors are increasingly looking at ARPU and data revenue figures to gauge what kind of success companies will have in upcoming quarters and years. In order to repay their massive debt loads, brought on by the development of these enhanced networks and acquisitions of regional operators, companies like Vodafone are counting on customers to spend more using new and enhanced services. ARPU and data revenue percentages are a reflection of how successful operators' efforts in promoting such services have been.

In fact Vodafone has said in the past that in the next three years the company wants to see 20 percent of its user revenues coming from data services. Moreover Ireland is thought be one of the leading markets per capita for data revenues, despite its lack of any GPRS offering until earlier this month.

"Vodafone is making good progress. We have achieved customer growth during a time when the market is slowing and exceptional customer growth is being replaced by a focus on selling an increasing number of services to customers," the company's senior investor manager, Jon Earl, told ElectricNews.Net.

Vodafone said that in the year ahead, the company expected some improvement in ARPU as the effects of the customer growth during 2001 and the availability of further voice and data services kicked-in.

However, the markets have not reacted positively to the announcements. Vodafone closed down 3.89 percent to STG1.54 in London on Tuesday, and was down by 5 percent in New York in afternoon trading.

One of Vodafone's main competitors, Orange, did not fare any better with the announcement of its 2001 results despite increasing its customer base by 29 percent to 39.3 million and boosting turnover by 25 percent to EUR15.09 billion. It also saw a rise in its recurring GSM network revenues, which were up 31 percent to EUR13.4 billion.

In the UK, Orange added 2.6 million customers in 2001 to reach a total of 12.4 million. Turnover grew by 27 percent to EUR5.3 billion, of which recurring GSM network revenues were EUR4.6 billion, up 39 percent from the year before.

Although these results were in line with market expectations, Orange closed down 3.31 percent to STG5.25 in London on Tuesday. It has traded in a 52-week range of STG5.32 to STG5.60.

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