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Who wants multimedia messaging?
Tuesday, July 02 2002
by Ralph Averbuch


I'm talking mobile again, but this time it's a question of how/if the public are
going to be able to access the new services being planned by the mobile
manufacturers and the networks.

Here's the problem. Recently I went along to a briefing by Nokia. Ostensibly it
was to talk about the new Nokia 7650. It's a dazzling little device which
essentially offers all the key features you have come to expect in a PDA, with
the added benefits of a truly impressive colour screen and a small camera built
into the back to let you send multimedia messaging files (MMS for short.)



This is considered a progression from text messaging and Nokia expects all its
handsets to be MMS capable by the end of next year. For a fully paid up member of
Gadget Freaks Anonymous it was an entertaining experience, seriously tempting me
to part with my teeny Sony and to succumb to the allure of the 7650.



But here's the conundrum. Apparently the Nokia 7650 is aimed at a 'youth' market
as they see the MMS capabilities being exploited mostly by this demographic. Yet
it looks like, even with a subsidy from the network, the cost of the first MMS
enabled handsets will hover between the EUR500 to EUR600 mark.



Now, that's hardly likely to create an atmosphere conducive to sales from the
target market, is it? How many people do you know in that group who are able to
splurge that kind of money on a new handset? 



Also, as a 'must-be-seen-with' fashion accessory, the new Nokia takes the market
to a new level. When the youth market could buy or upgrade to a new handset for
perhaps EUR50 with a contract, getting them to act was not necessarily a painful
exercise. But how many will be willing to pay, say EUR500 this year, only to
spend the same amount again in 12 months' time, when the next great MMS enabled
thingy arrives?



Well, some will most certainly, but will that 'some' be enough to create a
market?



Then there's the issue of adoption time. For MMS to really fly it's going to need
to reach a critical mass of consumers. It's not too clear how long that's going
to take. It might be quick if the handset manufacturers all loss-lead to get the
technology out there. But then again, why should they? They don't make money by
selling at less than manufacturing cost, so the onus moves to the networks who
may be prepared to bundle these devices at discount in the hope of recouping the
loss from bigger MMS charges.



This then opens up the next quandary. Will the youth market be prepared to bear
the brunt of an MMS message costing, say EUR0.30 to EUR0.50 a time, as compared
to an SMS at EUR0.09 to EUR0.12?



It's early days as yet for MMS, with networks in Ireland unlikely to be able to
offer it until Q4 this year. Yet, I have no doubt that, in the long run, just
like SMS, it will prevail. However, MMS enabled phones, particularly the Nokia
7650 with its PDA-like functions, are now going to start competing with the new
phone/PDA hybrids such as the XDA and the Handspring Treo. 



As these devices offer colour and access to mobile e-mail, it muddies the waters
even further. You can pretty much do everything MMS is set to offer in a phone
and more, such as using it to play back MP3 and keep contacts/diary dates.



It's my guess that within a year the XDA, Treo and any other PDA/phone will also
be MMS compatible too. So what will the consumer buy - a PDA with a built-in
phone or a phone with PDA functions? No one knows for certain, but we can be sure
that the phone you carry in your pocket two years from now will do a whole lot
more than it does today.