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 Here's the problem. Recently I went along to a briefing by Nokia. Ostensibly it was to talk about the new Nokia 7650. It's a dazzling little device which essentially offers all the key features you have come to expect in a PDA, with the added benefits of a truly impressive colour screen and a small camera built into the back to let you send multimedia messaging files (MMS for short.)
This is considered a progression from text messaging and Nokia expects all its handsets to be MMS capable by the end of next year. For a fully paid up member of Gadget Freaks Anonymous it was an entertaining experience, seriously tempting me to part with my teeny Sony and to succumb to the allure of the 7650.
But here's the conundrum. Apparently the Nokia 7650 is aimed at a 'youth' market as they see the MMS capabilities being exploited mostly by this demographic. Yet it looks like, even with a subsidy from the network, the cost of the first MMS enabled handsets will hover between the EUR500 to EUR600 mark.
Now, that's hardly likely to create an atmosphere conducive to sales from the target market, is it? How many people do you know in that group who are able to splurge that kind of money on a new handset?
Also, as a 'must-be-seen-with' fashion accessory, the new Nokia takes the market to a new level. When the youth market could buy or upgrade to a new handset for perhaps EUR50 with a contract, getting them to act was not necessarily a painful exercise. But how many will be willing to pay, say EUR500 this year, only to spend the same amount again in 12 months' time, when the next great MMS enabled thingy arrives?
Well, some will most certainly, but will that 'some' be enough to create a market?
Then there's the issue of adoption time. For MMS to really fly it's going to need to reach a critical mass of consumers. It's not too clear how long that's going to take. It might be quick if the handset manufacturers all loss-lead to get the technology out there. But then again, why should they? They don't make money by selling at less than manufacturing cost, so the onus moves to the networks who may be prepared to bundle these devices at discount in the hope of recouping the loss from bigger MMS charges.
This then opens up the next quandary. Will the youth market be prepared to bear the brunt of an MMS message costing, say EUR0.30 to EUR0.50 a time, as compared to an SMS at EUR0.09 to EUR0.12?
It's early days as yet for MMS, with networks in Ireland unlikely to be able to offer it until Q4 this year. Yet, I have no doubt that, in the long run, just like SMS, it will prevail. However, MMS enabled phones, particularly the Nokia 7650 with its PDA-like functions, are now going to start competing with the new phone/PDA hybrids such as the XDA and the Handspring Treo.
As these devices offer colour and access to mobile e-mail, it muddies the waters even further. You can pretty much do everything MMS is set to offer in a phone and more, such as using it to play back MP3 and keep contacts/diary dates.
It's my guess that within a year the XDA, Treo and any other PDA/phone will also be MMS compatible too. So what will the consumer buy - a PDA with a built-in phone or a phone with PDA functions? No one knows for certain, but we can be sure that the phone you carry in your pocket two years from now will do a whole lot more than it does today.
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