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Researcher makes predictions for 2010
Monday, January 21 2002
by Matthew Clark


Over the next 10 years researchers will have developed clothes that collect solar
power, insect like robots and artificial intelligence, an expert claims.



These are some of the predictions that Ian Pearson, futurist with British telecom
subsidiary, BTexact, has made. This vision of the technological future comes from
BTexact's most recent technology timeline, and this week Pearson released his top
25 predictions for the next eight years. 



Officially launched as a separate entity from BT in May 2001, UK-based BTexact
Technologies develops advanced communication technologies.  As part of the BT
Group, the business has been publishing its list of future technologies since
1991. Since that time the list has been updated once every two or three years.
The timeline is produced mainly to give BTexact researchers and managers a view
of what the operating environment is likely to contain at any future date,
Pearson says.  

According to BTexact, a variety of sources are used in developing the timeline,
including the previous edition, but also industry journals and bulletins,
scouring the Internet, talking with experts and even "just by relaxing and
thinking about the future." 

Some of the highlights from Pearson's most recent list include the development of
smart clothes that alter their thermal properties by the end of this year. By
2003 scientists will have invented a kitchen food tester that identifies presence
of food bugs as well as notebook computer screens with contrast as good as paper.
Other developments for next year should include an air mouse and air typing as
well as video jewellery and virtual retinal displays in glasses, Pearson says. 



By 2004 companies will be launching toys with network-based intelligence, devices
that instantly diagnose illness and tactile sensors comparable to human
sensation. Moreover technology will have advanced to the point where mobile
phones are used in traffic management systems. The following year scientists will
invent clothes that collect and store solar power and virtual reality will be in
widespread use for recreation and education. 



While only four years away, things start to get strange in 2006. In that year
artificial electronic life will be created and scientists will also bring the
first organism brought back from extinction. Other developments will include
emotionally sensitive toys and robots. Finally by 2010, Pearson says portable
translation devices for simple conversation will be invented and an artificially
intelligent (AI) entity will pass the GSCE exams. Also in that year the highest
earning celebrity will be synthetic and anti-noise technology will be built into
homes. All of this will come at a time when insect-like robots are used in
warfare.  



While many of these technologies sound strange, Pearson admits that some may not
come to pass. "What must be remembered by anyone preparing for the future is
that technology change isn't very important in itself. What matters is what this
change enables or destroys."



He says not all developments will be successful in the marketplace and some will
never ever be implemented at all, but the dates listed are when Pearson thinks
these technologies will be developed whether there is widespread use of them or
not.  "It is hard for many people to believe or accept some of the changes
listed above when half of the world's people have yet to make their first phone
call.  The process will inevitably be slower in the developing world, but the
path will be similar." 



BTexact's lists have been remarkably accurate in the past and Pearson told
ElectricNews.Net that he was most proud of a few notable predictions that include
the use of analogue devices in artificial intelligence research as well as the
use of FPGAs (Field-Programmable Gate Array), a type of logic chip that can be
programmed which are especially popular for prototyping integrated circuit
designs. 

"We have made some pretty big goofs too," Pearson admits. "Ten years ago
virtual reality looked like a dead cert in terms of widespread use. While it's
used a lot in some fields, most of what we predicted hasn't really happened."



In BTexact's most recent full timeline, the company's researchers make a few
fairly unbelievable predictions.  The full timeline says that by 2020
electronic pets will outnumber organic pets and electronic life forms will be
given basic rights.  A year later however a virus will wipe out half of the
electronic pet population. Later in that same year an artificial liver will be
invented and nanobots in toothpaste will clean your teeth. In 2025 people will
have fully functioning artificial eyes and artificial brain implants. 



But the timeline also paints an ominous portrait of a future that could come to
pass. Pearson says that in time artificial intelligence will surpass that of
human intelligence. "We will find ourselves in a world dominated by things we
no longer are able to understand," he says. "I think that the ethical and
religious implication of the development of many types of technologies ought to
be examined further. The scenario where the machine is superior to us, or where
fanatic environmentalists have the ability to destroy the environment is not
unimaginable."



With threats on the horizon such as fatal climatic instability in 2040 or
unethical human genetic engineering leading to the creation of a hostile
super-race in 2070, Pearson says the world could be a terrible place for regular
humans. "I am not saying these things will happen, these dates just indicate
when our technological development will allow us to do these things. We just need
to understand the implications of what we create, before we create it," Pearson
warned. 





For more information  visit  HREF="http://www.btexact.com">http://www.btexact.com.