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IDC predicts huge surge in e-mail use
Tuesday, September 18 2001
by Matthew Clark


E-mail use is expected to grow substantially over the next five years and the
number of e-mailboxes will increase to 1.2 billion by 2005, according to IDC.





According to the Massachusetts-based research company, the compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) of e-mailboxes will hit 138 percent, demonstrating a growth in
e-mailboxes globally from 505 million in 2000 to 1.2 billion in 2005. 



According to the company's analysis published in its "Third annual Email Usage
Forecast and Analysis, 2001-2005," this growth is based on three factors, Web
services, wireless access, and workers without e-mail.



The report includes a 10-year market view (1995-2005) of e-mail mailboxes, users,
volumes, and primary access methods for North America, Western Europe and the
Asia/Pacific regions. 



The company says that although a shakeout has taken place among free e-mail
providers, it believes the existing leaders in the market will see tremendous
growth in mailboxes tied to Web sites such as Microsoft's Hotmail. 



In fact the growth of wireless e-mail services made a major leap earlier this
year when in late August Microsoft announced that it would give 20 million
European Hotmail users wireless access to their e-mail. 



The plan, by one of the world's largest free e-mail services, will see users
access Hotmail accounts and send e-mails via SMS and is expected to give mobile
users greater access to the MSN portal. 



In Ireland the free e-mail service from Ireland.com will shortly become a paid
service. The company announced earlier this month that it would soon begin
selling a premium subscription-based service to new and existing users.



"Wireless access through e-mail devices and network services will offer new
ways for e-mail users to remain connected longer while on the move," said Mark
Levitt, research director for IDC's collaborative computing program. He added,
"Workers such as deskless and mobile workers whose access to e-mail has not
come easy will benefit from customised e-mail software, devices, and hosted
services."



Indeed, IDC has provided additional figures to reinforce its claims. The number
of person-to-person e-mails sent on an average day is expected to exceed 36
billion worldwide in 2005, IDC predicts. The company also said, the growing
effect of the Web on e-mail is evident in widening usage of Web browsers as the
primary method for accessing e-mail, expected to surpass 50 percent for all
e-mail mailboxes worldwide in 2003.





"E-mail usage is growing despite challenges from market substitutes like
instant messaging and virtual workspaces that require a change in the way people
work and often fall short of matching e-mail's ease of use and global reach,"
said Robert Mahowald, senior analyst for IDC's collaborative computing program.
He also said e-mail will be driven by better integration between e-mail and other
business applications thereby making the technology even more accessible than it
already is.



IDC can be found http://www.idc.com.